Skip to main content

Evaluating the Phillies' Rule 5 Draft & 40-man roster plans

November is the time of year when the Phillies begin to refine their 40-man roster in preparation for the annual MLB Winter Meetings and the corresponding Rule 5 draft. Fans will see players "activated" from the 60-day disabled list, players opting for free agency as well as minor leaguers added to the roster in order to protect them from being scooped up by the competition.

rule_5_draft_logo_ny6zx9iu_9pdnvgoiPlayers are initially eligible for selection in MLB's Rule 5 draft when they are not on their major league organization's 40-man roster and 1) were signed to a contract at age 19 or older and have played in professional baseball for four years, OR 2) were signed at age 18 or younger and have played in pro ball for five years.

Like the annual amateur draft, teams draft in reverse order of the regular-season standings. A team that does not have any vacancies on its 40-man roster may not make a selection in the Rule 5 draft. Once a player is chosen, that player is automatically assigned to his new organization's 40-man roster.

A Rule 5 player must remain on the selecting team's 25-man big league roster for the entire next season, or be offered back to his original team.

The Phillies are heavily stocked with players that could be of interest to teams throughout baseball. Individuals that are eligible for the first time this year and are not already on the organization's 40-man roster include former top draft choice RHP Shane Watson, powerful outfield prospect Nick Williams, rising slugger Jose Pujols, infielder Jesmuel Valentin, hurlers Nick Pivetta, Mark Appel and Elniery Garcia, plus Paul Owens Awards winners Ricardo Pinto, Ben Lively, Andrew Knapp and Dylan Cozens, among many others.

Watson, who was drafted 40th overall by the Phils in 2012, admitted this year that he thinks about his eligibility for the Rule 5 draft, implying that he wants to stick with the team he turned pro with, but like any smart ballplayer he just wants a chance to succeed somewhere. After missing two full years with shoulder injuries, the 23-year-old righty has yet to reach the Double-A level, having tallied a 4-5 record with a 3.93 ERA and a 7.6 K/9 mark in 14 starts with Class A Advanced Clearwater this past season. He likely would not be ready to stick with a team for an entire season at the big league level next year, so the risk of the Phils losing him would be minimal.

Williams, who was one of the big gets in last year's Cole Hamels trade with Texas, is a lock to be added to the Phillies' 40-man roster. As a member of the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs last season, the 23-year-old lefty batter posted a .258/.287/.427 slash line in 125 games. For a team that had a MLB worst OPS from its outfielders this past season, the Phils will be relying on Williams' bat, which features plus power, in the near future.

Pujols, a 21-year-old righty batting masher, has begun to creep toward the top of the Phillies' prospect rankings. With a hefty amount of strikeouts (179) to go along with his team single-season record 24 home runs for Class A Lakewood last season, it's not likely a team would have confidence with inserting him onto a big league roster for next year's entire campaign. Pujols is far enough down in the baseball ranks that he's likely safe to leave unprotected.


Valentin, the son of former White Sox and Mets infielder Jose Valentin, is another player that has spoken of being aware of his need to be on the 40-man roster in order to avoid the Rule 5 draft. In other organizations, it's possible that Valentin, who wrapped up his 2016 regular season campaign with Triple-A Lehigh Valley (.248 avg, four HR, 14 RBI in 36 games) could end up on the 40-man, but maybe not in this Phils system that is chock full of guys that need protection. The 22-year-old switch-hitter could easily become an instant utility infielder at the top level of the sport, where versatility can often prove valuable.

Pivetta, a 23-year-old righty that sports a mid-90’s fastball, is possibly the best equipped among the players listed here to contribute at the top level starting next April. In 27 combined appearances at Double-A and Triple-A last season, Pivetta, who was acquired from Washington in the Jonathan Papelbon trade in 2015, posted a 12-8 record along with a 3.27 ERA and an 8.4 K/9 mark. A starter throughout his professional career, the British Columbia native could be a prime candidate to see some innings in a relief role in the big leagues next season. 

Appel, who was acquired as part of the 2015 Ken Giles trade with Houston, is a former number 1 overall draft choice (2013). The 25-year-old right-hander missed a majority of last season after requiring shoulder surgery. It is unlikely that a team would jump at a health risk like Appel, although the disabled list status and minor league rehab period that goes with it could help him stick on a 25-man roster for some time until a team can test his durability and capabilities next year. 

Garcia, a 21-year-old Dominican Republic native, had an excellent season for Class A Advanced Clearwater, where he tallied a 12-4 record with a 2.68 ERA and a 6.9 K/9 mark. The left-hander is already regarded among the Phillies' top pitching prospects, but should be considered a long shot to stick on a big league roster for an entire season next year.

Pinto represented the Phillies in the MLB All-Star Futures Game this year. A steady strike thrower with an outstanding change up, the 22-year-old righty had a good season in which he posted a 7-6 record with a 4.10 ERA in 27 games with Reading. The Venezuelan could be attractive to some teams desperate for consistency.
Lively is fresh off a remarkable season that saw him lead all of the minors in wins with 18. In 28 starts combined with Reading and Lehigh Valley, Lively sported a 2.69 ERA with a .192 batting average against. If he is left unprotected, the right-hander might be as likely to draw interest as any of the other hurlers listed, however the 24-year-old may not have a ton of believers that his success can translate to the big leagues.

Knapp, a Triple-A All-Star last season, was overlooked for the younger Jorge Alfaro late in the 2016 campaign when the Phils needed an extra catcher. The switch-hitting 24-year-old posted a .266 average with eight homers and 46 RBI in 107 games for Lehigh Valley. I would expect with the upcoming free agency of fellow backstop A.J. Ellis, the team would have room for Knapp on the 40-man.

Cozens, the minor league home run leader for 2016 (40), is a no-brainer to be added to the Phils' 40-man roster. See earlier notes on Williams for how valuable this lefty hitting powerhouse could be to the future of the team's outfield.

It's worth pointing out that not only players who are eligible for the first time this year are subject to the Rule 5 draft. Names like Carlos Tocci, Mitch Walding, Malquin Canelo, Alberto Tirado and Cam Perkins all became eligible in previous seasons and could draw interest from other clubs. Additionally, players with big league experience like Mario Hollands and Darnell Sweeney could also be subject to the Rule 5 draft.

Tocci, a talented outfielder with limited power, is often ranked among the Phillies' top prospects and could be worthy of protection. Tirado, a 21-year-old righty that can get his fastball up to triple digits, should garner loads of consideration as a future contributor at the big league level.

The Phillies will need to use every single spot on their own 40-man roster to protect as many of these players as possible, so they won't have any room to select in the Rule 5 draft themselves.

Now that the World Series is over, off-season roster moves will begin. Players will officially become free agents, others will be waived, disabled players will be activated and qualifying offers will be extended. Then soon after, some player options (so long, Ryan Howard) will be bought out. All of that will lead to the additions of several of the players I've discussed here to make sure they remain Phillies next year.

Much forecasting and prioritizing will need to be done by the Phillies' front office. It will all be quite a chore to say the least.

This article was originally published on Phillies Nation.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Jersey Shore clinches playoff berth on final day of regular season

Ottto Kemp, image- Jay Floyd With an extra-inning victory over first-half division champions Hudson Valley on Sunday, the Class A Advanced Jersey Shore BlueClaws clinched the team's first playoff appearance since 2018, winning the second-half division title. Key performers in the BlueClaws' clincher were righty hurler Jason Ruffcorn, who threw three innings of relief to earn the victory and third baseman Otto Kemp, notched three hits, a walk, two stolen bases and plated the game winning run in the 11th inning on a sacrifice fly.  On top of that, Kemp, who turned 24-years-old on Saturday, made an absolute game-saving defensive play to help the club hold their lead in the bottom of the 11th frame. One of Jersey Shore's most consistent performers all season long has been right-handed reliever Cam Wynne.  The Phillies' 20th round draft pick in 2021 out of Nebraska.  In 34 appearances, one start, the 24-year-old tallied a 1-1 record with one save, a 2.44 ERA and a .190 batti

PhoulBallz Interview: BlueClaws OF Justin Crawford

Justin Crawford w/ junior reporter Evan At the age of 19, outfielder Justin Crawford has played his way into the conversation of being considered as one of baseball's top prospects. The son of four-time MLB All-Star Carl Crawford, Justin has looked every bit as impressive as his position as the 17th overall draft selection last year would have most fans thinking he should be.  He opened the season with Class A Clearwater where, in 69 games, he notched a .344/.399/.478 slash line.  And since mid-August when he was promoted to Class A Advanced Jersey Shore, the younger Crawford has posted a .300/.364/.440 line.  He's also stolen 44 bases in 52 attempts overall. And while the BlueClaws enter the final week of the regular season 1/2 game out of first place in their division, I spoke with Justin Crawford about the team's hopes of making the postseason for the first time since 2018. I also asked Justin about the similarities and differences between his skillset and his father'

RHP Pipkin headed to AFL after hot August

After completing what was easily the best month of his career, righty hurler Dominic Pipkin is ready to face the tough competition of the prominent Arizona Fall Leage.   Pipkin, who was the Phillies' 9th round draft selection in 2018, has had moderate success in his five years as a pro, posting a 4.93 ERA, a 7.6 K/9 mark and a .260 batting average against mostly at the lower levels on the minors. After missing time this year with an unspecified ailment, the six-foot-four 170-pounder proved to be healthy as he dominated AA competition in nine appearances with the Reading Fightin Phils during August.  Pipkin's impressive production resulted in a 1-0 record with a save and a 0.96 ERA while striking out eight and walking three in 9 1/3 innings. The California native says his efforts to improve have helped him touch 100 MPH on the radar gun, while his fastball velocity is mostly around 96 MPH.   Pipkin's arsenal includes that improved fastball as well as a slider while his curve